The agreement between the United States – Mexico- Canada (USMCA in the United States, “CUSMA” in Canada and “T-MEC” in Mexico) came into force on July 1, 2020. The trade agreement between the three countries replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Neither the worst fears of Canadian trade opponents – that open trade would erode the country`s manufacturing sector – nor the highest hopes of NAFTA proponents – that this would lead to a rapid increase in productivity – have been realized. Employment in Canada`s manufacturing sector has remained stable, but the productivity gap between the Canadian and U.S. economies has not been closed: until 2017, Canada`s labour productivity remained at 72% of the U.S. level. An April 2019 Analysis by the International Trade Commission on the likely effects of the USMCA estimated that the agreement would increase U.S. real GDP by 0.35 percent if the agreement were fully implemented (six years after ratification) and would increase total U.S. employment by 0.12% (176,000 jobs).   The analysis cited by another Congressional Research Service study showed that the agreement would not have a measurable effect on employment, wages or overall economic growth.
 In the summer of 2019, Larry Kudlow, Trump`s chief economic adviser (the director of the National Economic Council at Trump White House), made unfounded statements about the likely economic impact of the agreement and overstated forecasts related to jobs and GDP growth.  NAFTA has three primary dispute resolution mechanisms. Chapter 20 is the settlement mechanism for countries. It is often considered the least controversial of the three mechanisms, and has been maintained in its original form from NAFTA to the USMCA. In such cases, complaints filed by USMCA Member States against the duration of the contract would be violated.  In Chapter 19, the justifications for anti-dumping or countervailing duties are managed. Without Chapter 19, the avenue of recourse for the management of these policies would be through the national legal system. Chapter 19 provides that an USMCA body hears the case and acts as an international commercial tribunal to arbitrate the dispute.  The Trump administration has attempted to remove Chapter 19 of the new USMCA text, which until now existed in the agreement. The USMCA is expected to have a very small impact on the economy.  An International Monetary Fund (IMF) discussion paper published at the end of March 2019 stated that the agreement would have a “negligible” impact on the general economy.
  The IMF study predicted that the USMCA “would have a negative impact on trade in the automotive, textile and clothing sectors, while achieving modest welfare gains, mainly due to improved access to the goods market, with a negligible impact on real GDP.”  The IMF study concluded that the economic benefits of the USMCA would be greatly enhanced if Trump`s trade war ended (i.e., the United States lowering tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico and that Canada and Mexico lowering retaliatory duties on imports from the United States)  For the first time , the agreement specifically targets agricultural biotechnology to support innovation in agriculture. The text covers all biotechnology, including new technologies such as gene processing, while the trans-Pacific Partnership text covered only traditional rDNA technology. In particular, the United States, Mexico and Canada have agreed on provisions to improve information exchange and cooperation on trade-related issues in agricultural biotechnology. Such trade benefits often come under interest, because while costs are highly concentrated in certain sectors such as the automotive industry, the benefits of an agreement such as NAFTA are widespread in society.